I was going to have a break, but it’s time to get the popcorn out, as Sebastian Vettel’s retirement set in motion something that can only be explained by a very big chart. 

Let’s try to recap what has happened after the Hungarian Grand Prix. 

The ides of... August?

On August 1, Aston Martin announced that two-time world champion Fernando Alonso was the latest former champion to join the team, with Sebastian Vettel retiring. Remember that date, because it’s important. The rumour is that Alpine had absolutely no idea, with the Spanish veteran reassuring the team he was going to sign for next year, sure, no worries, we’ll do it after the summer break. It’s all good! And by no idea, Alpine found out when everyone else did, seeing it in a green-headered press release. 

In the meantime, the team principal, Otmar Szafnauer, who himself went from Aston Martin to Alpine in less than harmonious circumstances has had the move pulled on him in reverse. He said today it was difficult to reach Alonso as he was on a Greek island. A few hours later, Alonso put this on his Instagram story… 

All going well then. Still, Alpine have an ace up their sleeve. If F1 is home to the 20 best drivers in the world, then Oscar Piastri is probably 21st. The Formula 3 champion stepped up to Formula 2 and wins that in his his first year too. His path was blocked by Alonso, so with Alonso gone, that’s his way to the top. Here’s where it really gets fun. Alpine, as expected, announced Piastri would take the seat, but didn’t include a driver quote from Piastri. Upon his phone exploding under the sheer weight of notifications, the Australian lobbed a bomb of his own. 

So we'll put you down as a no? 

I can’t remember a young driver turning down one of the golddust-laden elite seats, and it begs the question, how can you be that secure in turning down the academy you’ve been part of for four years, probably burning the best bridge you have to Formula 1? The answer is that Piastri may well already have a seat secured for 2023. Alpine believe they are legally secure in what they’ve said, so they’re not going to say anything more, but somewhere, a lawyer just bought themselves another house. 

A mini-rewind

While Alpine are frantically trying to get hold of their legal team, let’s rewind a bit. Firstly to the start of the season and Daniel Ricciardo getting COVID-19.

With his status uncertain for the season opener, Piastri was made available on loan. Ricciardo was fine to race, but has had a somewhat shaky season so far for McLaren, as they and Alpine battle for fourth place in the Constructors’ Championship. This included rumours that the team were actively looking to replace one of the sport’s most marketable personalities, causing the Australian to comment in his own words on what was going on. 

But despite him being secure in his seat until the end of next season, the whispers keep on coming. Like any good F1 team, McLaren has a succession plan, but if all goes well, it only really needs one, as opposed to the open casting call it seems to have put out. 

The contenders for a seat that doesn't officially exist

First, there’s the really outside bet. Jehan Daruvala is a Red Bull junior, but his path looks somewhat blocked in the rumble that is the Red Bull Junior team. The Indian test drove an old McLaren at Silverstone in June. 

This is probably not going to end with a full-time F1 drive for Daruvala at McLaren, but a completely unfounded hunch tells me this is an audition for Formula E. Moving on to the three drivers at Indycar, starting with Colton Herta. Here’s the young American test-driving an old McLaren at Portimao.

Herta would be a marketable, competitive American driver, and with Williams potentially having Logan Sargeant ready for a drive, the race may well be on to have the first American F1 driver of the Drive to Survive era and the first since Scott Speed. 

Williams isn’t the only team that could name an American driver, with the stalking horse of an Andretti motorsport entry continuing to to be A Thing. 

Read: How would a possible Andretti entry work in F1?

Closely following Herta is Pato O’Ward. The Mexican has had unspectacular cameo appearances in Formula 2 and Super Formula in the past, but he’s really found himself since being with Arrow McLaren in Indycar.

O’Ward is almost always there or thereabouts in an Indycar race, but may end up being the driver that falls through the cracks, after getting a McLaren test as a reward for winning at least one Indy race in 2021. 

And then there’s another legal matter with Indycar champion Alex Palou. His current team, Chip Ganassi Racing, announced that they’d re-signed him for 2023, with a quote attributed to the Spanish driver that used the words “the folks at CGR”. Palou then announced he’d signed with McLaren. His future is currently unresolved, but is the Piastri-Alpine situation done stateside. 

A longer rewind

The other question that’s worth answering is why Piastri would be so confident in turning down his home team? Do you remember, approximately 32,000 words ago, that Alonso was announced on August 1? Yes? Good. 

Alpine might have lost their option on Piastri, announced the driver was joining anyway, and we’re back at the stage of throwing bombs from your phone while half-asleep in bed. This has some precedent from the mad world of WWE. In 1999, when wrestling was cool, Jeff Jarrett was walking out of the WWE door and onto the sinking ship that was WCW. 

There was one problem, he was still Intercontinental champion and was out of contract on the day of a PPV. WWE allegedly paid him $300k for one night’s work, he dropped the belt and ended up starting his own company, before eventually returning to WWE.

If Piastri’s option had expired, maybe he’s looking for a bigger payday from Alpine, or maybe it’s McLaren waiting in the wings to scoop him up. 

The twist

But with those four drivers, plus Ricciardo, plus all the other drivers in McLaren’s stable, there surely can’t be room for one more? Like all good superhero movies, the real skill is in the twist. There is one team who has a space (potentially two) in their line up next season… the only problem is that they’re not especially competitive. Enter Williams Racing.

Williams have spaces, and Piastri can develop in a low-pressure environment alongside Alex Albon, Logan Sargeant or Nyck de Vries, with very little expectations on him. Essentially, the George Russell path to the top, using a Mercedes powertrain, rather than being locked to a Renault engine. 

Piastri only has to look at Ricciardo’s struggles to see that leaving one system for a different one brings a whole heap of struggles even for one of the best drivers in Formula 1, let alone a rookie. This may not get sorted anytime soon, and there will be plenty of twists along the way, but think of the pressure on Piastri - he’s yet to make a start in F1, and there are already two or three teams scrapping for his services. 

And as one more footnote, if Piastri doesn’t go to Alpine, how happy must Jack Doohan be? He left the Red Bull Academy to go to Alpine. It might be too soon for him, but he might be the next Australian to get to F1 instead of the one everyone thought would get there first.