🇺🇸 F1'25 R19: The numbers don't lie

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The whisper is gradually becoming louder and louder with a growing chorus of belief, once dismissed as impossible now unignorable.

He… couldn't do it, could he?

A battle between two McLaren drivers now has a looming presence interjecting in the form of Max Verstappen searching for a fifth consecutive driver’s title.

In one papaya corner, Oscar Piastri leads the title race but something is not right. Still the calmest man on the grid, his dismay often sounds like the barista has put the wrong type of milk in his coffee order, rather than leading the most high-pressure sports competition in the world. 

But the frustration is starting to shine through a little bit and despite public denials that McLaren treats both drivers equally, his messages on the radio sound exasperated.

And in the other papaya corner is Lando Norris. He could conceivably be a Red Bull driver, swaggering his way on the grid like he’s the main event of a festival on Friday night, he's also in search of his first world title, and yes, he's absolutely sure there isn't any bias towards the other guy and everything is equal.

Despite those denials, this hasn't stopped the more toxic elements of both drivers’ fanbases let their imaginations run wild, not helped by an ongoing court case involving the team’s CEO, Zak Brown.

The case is continuing at the time of writing, but one of the allegations made by the defendant is that Zak Brown did not want Oscar Piastri and was overruled (Brown described that as “ludicrous”). Some fans have looked at that as proof that McLaren want Norris to win, rather than Piastri.

In a situation where some fans are looking for the tiniest signs of perceived bias, this gets blown up into something it isn't.

It's also somewhat telling that the prevailing conversation around F1 is all about Verstappen. Even with Norris being closer to the leader, he seems to be third favourite for the title.

For longer-term fans of Formula 1, there is precedent here, going back to 2007, which feels like it may as well be presented on microfiche now.

A young rookie was paired at McLaren with a two-time world champion, and both drivers - despite starting in quite a friendly way - imploded. Their relationship ended in tatters as the pressure of the title engulfed them and the team, which had been banned from the Constructors’ Championship. A veteran stole in, lying in wait, all the way back in third as the final race of the season started. By the end, you could put it in the Louvre, because the title was stolen from not one, but two McLaren drivers.

The rookie was Lewis Hamilton, and while he and Fernando Alonso were warring, Kimi Raikkonen crept in and won Ferrari’s most recent title. The echoes are there, and Andrea Stella was part of the Ferrari outfit when it happened. 

But this history lesson won't change how McLaren approach the final races. They can't, painted into a papaya corner. Papaya Rules has become a curse for the team, handcuffing them from choosing one driver over another and creating chaos out of every intra-team decision they make.

If they were to do this now, the outcry would be horrific. They'd alienate the driver that wasn't chosen and they would blow the whole team up when they don't need to. They'd kill a huge part of their fanbase and hurt team morale. This isn't Schumacher-Barrichello, with a defined number one and a capable deputy who is informally not allowed to be a title winner.

So what has happened that has allowed Red Bull to sneak their way to the brink before banging down the door? Reports say that Red Bull have managed to unlock some performance out of this car, and most other teams have switched focus to the new regulations. Max is on a mission to become Max Ver5tappen and become just one of four drivers with more than four titles.

And speaking of fans looking for every possible sign, there is a decent cottage industry of  McLaren conspiracies - go back to Silverstone and Nico Hulkenberg’s first podium. There are some fans complaining that McLaren’s drivers didn't celebrate with the Sauber driver and this is therefore karma playing out. Obviously this is nonsense, but Lando did also get a whack in the face when he went to meet the fans after…. Wait?...no, it's nonsense, right?

Combined with some of Max’s other work, like winning a GT3 race on his day off, maybe he is more liked than previously advertised and fans don't see him as the all-conquering misanthropic final boss of Formula 1. 

McLaren, according to Laurent Mekies, no longer enjoy the advantage they had at the start of the season. It's not just Red Bull either, with George Russell’s Mercedes a punchy contender, as well as Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari when not being forced to lift and coast.

The rule changes have caused true convergence at the top, with McLaren’s consistency across both drivers ensuring an unassailable lead, but the race for second in the Team’s title is a significant financial bump to finishing fourth.

Even in the lower ranks below fifth-placed Williams, sixth to ninth is highly contested. Every lap now matters, even if you're dirt last and Franco Colapinto has turned into Mazepin 2.0 - a very small chance of points in that car, but ignoring team orders to finish 17th is like a victory. Alpine will launch an internal inquiry into team orders being ignored, but it looked like Colapinto was right on this occasion as Gasly (who Colapinto said was ‘so slow!’) fell behind Bortoleto.

We’re at the part of the season where long travel, little reward and uncertain futures are going to make drivers and teams make some weird decisions. You're meant to act like you've been there before. Neither of the top two drivers have in F1, but the guy in third just had a perfect weekend, and has been there many times before.

If Max Verstappen wins his fifth world title in 2025, it will be the most impressive one yet. 2021 was the end of a thrilling film, 2022 was title defence mode, 2023 was domination on a scale rarely seen in any sport and 2024 was a matter of when, not if, despite McLaren’s challenge. 

Mexico is the second part of this F1 double header and it feels like every corner is going to bring with it a little more drama. It could not be a better time to be a fan, if you avoid the toxic fantasists on some social platforms. It's going to be a Hollywood ending whichever way it goes.