🇲🇽 F1'24: R20 - Musical chairs

After the Mexico City Grand Prix, Valtteri Bottas is 23rd in a 20-driver championship. The Sauber team has title more sponsors than points in 2024 as the bright green and black machine trundles around at the back of the field.

Several problems have reared their head at Sauber in 2024. Pit stops were seconds longer than most because of bad machinery. The car doesn’t react well to wind, which is suboptimal for a sport that races outside and has a heavy dependence on aerodynamics. And most of all, Sauber have turned into that checked-out colleague you work with. The one that is already saying “ah, that is a problem for next year.”

Next year features the arriving cavalry for their many title sponsors next year, before Audi arrives on the scene for the German battle with Mercedes. It hasn’t been without hiccups even before a wheel is turned in anger, with CEO Andreas Seidl joining from McLaren in 2022 and leaving a year later. Ferrari’s Mattia Binotto is already there as CTO, Red Bull stalwart Jonathan Wheatley will be the team principal from 2026. Nico Hulkenberg, who has had a quietly impressive 2024 with Haas, moves across to take one seat as we wave goodbye to Guanyu Zhou’s underwhelming time in F1, and well… we don’t yet know who the other driver will be.

We do know that it’s likely to be one of three: incumbent Valtteri Bottas, Brazilian F2 driver Gabriele Bortoleto or Williams impressive young rookie Franco Colapinto.

THE INCUMBENT - VALTTERI BOTTAS

Should you be allowed to re-enter F1 if you’re 23rd in a championship that has 20 drivers? Is there an argument for Formula 1 to impose some sort of relegation zone for its drivers? If so, it would be unfair on Bottas, who has scored points in every year he has been in the sport, starting with Williams in 2013 before being Lewis Hamilton’s “best” teammate in the dominant years at Mercedes, finishing second to Hamilton in 2019 and 2020.

He picked up 11 wins along the way, including his “home” Grand Prix in Australia, winning the season opener in 2019. A step down followed, and he was expected to lead the team and mentor Zhou at Alfa Romeo as it turned into the 452 sponsor names it has now. It hasn’t really worked like that, but Bottas has a lot of credit in the bank from his years at Mercedes.

He is a reliable veteran presence, normally able to squeeze performance out of a bad car. Bottas would hit his 250th race start if he was in the car next year, but it’s unlikely that he would add to his career points tally on the way. Does Sauber need two veterans in the form of Hulkenberg and Bottas? Geography might help here, with the Finnish driver closer to home in Switzerland than his South American rivals might be, but at 35, any extension for Bottas would be a short-term move and does not scream “hey, we have a long-term plan here” for an Audi team looking to make its mark as the new era begins in 2026.

THE TREND - FRANCO COLAPINTO

One of those names ahead of Bottas in the drivers’ championship is Argentine Franco Colapinto. Surprisingly drafted in to replace Logan Sargeant, Colapinto has already outscored the American, with points finishes in Singapore and Austin.

Some of the hype around the 21-year-old has been interesting, with people comparing how he looks to Ayrton Senna, which is one way you could compare him, sure, but Colapinto has taken this opportunity and showed himself in his best light.

He knows that he won’t have an F1 drive at Williams next season, and there are rumours that he has interest from other teams. A name no-one barely knew at the start of the year is now establishing himself around the sport’s royalty. Seeing his reaction to being seated next to Lewis Hamilton at the press conference for the Brazilian Grand Prix was refreshing, and you can tell he hasn’t had the rough edges knocked off him yet through media training, calling out Ocon for taking a fastest lap away from him in Austin one of his best bits.

It’s a truly refreshing sight to see the driver currently seventh in Formula 2 make an impact in the elite series. But there should also be a note of caution for a driver who jumps in a Williams and scores points. Nyck de Vries did just that while deputising for Alex Albon, and turned ninth in Monza into a drive with Alpha Tauri in 2023. He lasted 10 races before being replaced. Colapinto is not De Vries, and has a wider body of work than Monza. This move would represent a blend of innovation and forward thinking by Sauber.

THE UNSEATED - GABRIEL BORTOLETO

The Brazilian driver is currently part of the McLaren program, logjammed at the top by Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri. At the second layer is Pato O’Ward, who drove the car around Mexico City. So there is competition to be in that team, and none of those names are going anywhere. So it’s tough when you’re leading Formula 2, knowing that if you win, you’re not allowed to defend your title.

In fact, its last two champions don’t race in Formula 1. Felipe Drugovich dominated in 2022 with five wins, turning his independent entry into a seat at the Aston Martin table. Theo Pourchaire won just one race on the way to the F2 title last season, and despite being Sauber’s official reserve driver, does not seem to be in contention for this seat. He bounced around McLaren’s IndyCar program, replacing one driver, being replaced and then deputising for an injured driver all in the space of about half a season.

So for Bortoleto, either McLaren loans him to Sauber, or they release him to drive alongside Hulkenberg. Bortoleto only joined the McLaren driver programme in October 2023, so this would be more upheaval for him, but the reward would be a full-time race seat and a chance to impress as 2026 rolls around.

There is a heavy Fernando Alonso influence in Bortoleto’s driving, and the Aston Martin driver has mentored him and managed him through his A14 company. But perhaps the better comparator is Oscar Piastri. The Australian won Formula 3, stepped up and won Formula 2 before having his path blocked at Alpine. Despite the contract mix ups and meme press releases, Piastri found himself with McLaren after a gap year. Bortoleto could well be the same. There is massive potential here, and if Norris or Piastri were to leave, McLaren could roll the dice with another driver from its development program.

The Brazilian has raced a McLaren this year, driving the 2022 car around the Red Bull Ring in September. At Monza this year in Formula 2, Bortoleto went from last to first thanks to a wonderfully-timed safety car. It’s not impossible to achieve, but my feeling that if Audi took Bortoleto, it would be a loan, rather than a full release.

THE OTHERS

So if those three are the main ones in contention, who else could have been there? Carlos Sainz chose Williams, Theo Pourchaire we talked about, Zane Maloney is off to Formula E, Mick Schumacher (another ex-F2 champion) didn’t get the Alpine gig, and Zhou Guanyu is not thought to be a contender.

There are four races left for Bottas and Colapinto in F1 as things stand, with Bortoleto looking in from the outside before he attempts to extend his F2 lead in Qatar. Whoever Sauber takes into 2025 and presumably 2026 as Audi formally enter, they need to hit the running. 2025 gives the successful driver a year of work experience before the real games begin.