🇦🇺 F1'25, R01: Survivor Series

This post contains spoilers for the Australian Grand Prix. It’s probably worth your time to watch it before reading this.

That was a proper, old-school season opener made possible by the most unpredictable element of weather.

For all of the technology the teams employ to gain that extra 0.001, the hours of research in a wind tunnel, the late nights and stress, the sheer amount of blood, tears, toil and sweat that it takes to just put two cars on the grid, let alone be good, sometimes it comes down to your team principal sticking their hand out of the bunker to see just what class the intensity of rain is.

There is some research done when I write these (I know, I’m as surprised as you) and I can’t definitively work out whether Bahrain pays an extra premium to host the season opener. I suspected they did, but the initial reason for moving from Australia to Bahrain was because of the 2006 Commonwealth Games before it reverted back, and back again to Bahrain. This year the opener returned down under because of Ramadan and I imagine it is a lot more difficult being a meteorologist in Melbourne than it is in Sakhir. 

That said, predicting the weather for this race felt like hard mode, with classes of rain being predicted and moderated throughout the Grand Prix and different teams giving different euphemisms for “hey, be careful, it’s wet”.

And then when the rain came again, it caught both McLarens off guard at the end of Lap 44, with both papaya cars sliding onto the green grass. Oscar Piastri had the worst of it, as he tumbled down the order, and some drivers chose to stay out on slicks before they realised that maybe it would be better to finish than flame out. 

Interestingly, Haas stayed on inters longer, thinking they could… weather the storm (sorry) and then be on the right tyre at the right time when the rain came down again, but they would have lost too much time for the move to be effective. Ferrari did the opposite, staying on slicks thinking they could survive, realised they couldn’t and as Lewis Hamilton put it “we missed a big opportunity here”, even being passed at the end by a charging Piastri.

The gamble didn’t pay off for either outfit, as Haas finished as one of three teams not to gain any points, and Ferrari took home five points, their worst start to a season since 2009, when a shell-shocked Ferrari reacted to “Is that Glock?!” with a 15th and a DNF between Felipe Massa and Kimi Raikkonen.

One of the more fun F1 maxims is that when the opposition zigs, you zag. It’s not the sort of motto that would make it onto a tea towel, but it speaks to not being an echo of your rivals - over the course of the season, you’ll hear the words “box opposite” meaning if your opponent pits, you don’t, and vice versa. Doing something different is the norm in F1. But Ferrari and Haas showed that it didn’t really work. 

Red Bull put Max Verstappen onto medium tyres vs McLaren hards, and with the number of laps remaining, it looked like the right call, but Norris and his McLaren were too strong all weekend, the MCL39 looking balanced despite the changing conditions and situations.

Something I hope becomes more regular was a full standing start, no safety cars in the rain unless it’s absolutely needed. Several pundits and team personnel felt like it would be a start behind the safety car, but that did not materialise. With that said, throwing a red flag when it’s needed is not a bad thing. When Fernando Alonso crashed out, the safety car chose to leave some distance between it and the recovery truck on the way. It was uncomfortable to see Norris not be able to do the same thing and have to pass it while very close to the vehicle.

Based on this race, there will be some fans who feel like Melbourne should become the first race of the season once again. Logistically, the call makes sense with one of the longest trips for the teams done at the start of the campaign, and the unpredictability of the weather this year being put into the pros column. 

But there are four DRS zones here for a reason. In fully dry conditions, it is difficult to overtake in Australia, whereas Bahrain features the the DRS into Turns 1 and 4, giving more opportunities to pass. Racing in the middle east makes it an easier timezone sell for most of the world, and crucially for F1, the US. For a sport that is still growing, telling fans the first race starts at midnight in New York might mean that fans won’t be as invested from the start.

There’s a wildcard here too. Five years ago, F1 personnel travelled to Australia, only for the Grand Prix to be cancelled a few hours before the start of Practice 1. It shut down the sport for several months during various lockdowns as the world tried to figure out how to survive, let alone organise a motor racing series across the world. I wonder whether some of those personnel who took their last flight for a few months in 2020 felt a sense of completion or redemption at seeing the chequered flag today.

Whether it’s Bahrain or Australia, or even somewhere else entirely depends on what your preference is. Remove the weather factor, and the timezones, and even the travel time and objectively, what’s better for the drivers and the fans? It is a more difficult call but makes for a good debate. There have been some seasons that even started in Monaco, which feels impossible to think about now.

There is some structure when I write these (I know, I’m as surprised as you) and before we move on to the short preview of next week, a word about Anthony Hamilton. Isack Hadjar crashed his VCARB on the formation lap and kept his helmet on all the way back to his room. This was now a racing helmet not for physical protection, but a shield from the outside world. 

Much has been made of Hadjar’s admiration for Lewis Hamilton - there's a photo on the drivers’ parade of the two of them together and Hadjar looks supremely excited, now on the same playing field as his idol.

Hamilton Snr did not have to embrace Hadjar and give him some words of wisdom, but he did. And in a sport not known for empathy, this gesture feels like a measure of respect that sets the standard for Formula 1.

F1 moves to a back to back next week with China the second half of a double header. The Shanghai corkscrew will be hell on the front left tyre, as well as another long right hand near the middle of the lap. We did not learn a lot about which drivers can make their dry tyres last well, and for some drivers, they did not get many miles logged, meaning we (and they) still don’t really know how good they actually are. 

China will be a significant test of tyre management and composure. I felt that several drivers showed restraint while in the drivers’ seat. As the heat gets more intense, I wonder how long that will last.