🇮🇹 F1'25: R16 - The Herta Business

This is going to be fun. We’re going to see an IndyCar race winner compete in Formula 2 next year. And not just any driver. Colton Herta will be in the junior series as he attempts to win the necessary points to get an FIA Super License ahead of the 2027 season while being a test (not officially a reserve) driver for Cadillac.

If you don’t know who Colton Herta is, I’d hoped that IndyCar made one of their brilliant Super Bowl ads for him, but they didn’t. Imagine someone as laid back as Daniel Ricciardo off track but as aggressive as a less-refined Fernando Alonso on it. Back in 2019, when he was 18, Herta became IndyCar’s youngest winner, rolling his Harding Steinbrenner car around COTA to be the first IndyCar winner born this century to win a race. Yes, you crumbled into dust reading that.

Now 25, he won nine races in total in Indy, and all but one of them came on road courses, rather than ovals, with his last victory - Nashville 2024 - being around an oval. He has been linked to Formula 1 for years, and with several different teams, all the way back to 2021 and Sauber/Alfa Romeo. That didn’t pan out and in 2022, Zak Brown’s Pokemon Go shopping spree meant he was signed to a test, driving 160+ laps of Portimao. Rumours of a move to Alpha Tauri via a test for Alpine in 2023 didn’t happen and Herta’s name has been mentioned several times as driver for a new F1 team (including in this blog as far back as 2022).

But to get to F1, you need a Super License. There are exceptions to granting them in the past for drivers who weren’t the required age, but something as emotional and instinctive as being allowed to drive an F1 car has been reduced to a mathematical, merit-based formula.

That formula is a strange one. Like a struggling Premier League team, you’re looking for 40 points. Unlike Burnley, however, you can do this over multiple years with each series carrying its own weighting. The only Championships that give you the magic 40 in one go are IndyCar - if you win it, and Formula 2, if you finish in the Top 3.

If the points systems are equal, The FIA is saying that finishing 5th in IndyCar is the same as finishing 5th in Formula E, 7th in Formula 2 or WEC Hypercar. It’s a way for the authorities to filter out most drivers who shouldn’t be anywhere near an F1 car, but also acts as a way for them to make value judgements on different series, and allows them to promote their own official feeder series ladder.

For example, Rafa Camara won the F3 championship, with the season concluding in Monza. He takes 30 points as well as the trophy. Combine that with his FRECA win and the Ferrari Academy driver is already eligible for a Super License. Is winning the F3 title (as great as his season has been) worth the same as Herta’s 2nd in IndyCar 2024? 

Most of the F1 grid has competed on the official Road to F1 ladder, with Lewis Hamilton, Pierre Gasly, and Nico Hulkenberg coming through its previous incarnation of GP2. Max Verstappen and Lance Stroll skipped F2 completely, and a couple of others (Carlos Sainz, Esteban Ocon) used the now-defunct Formula Renault 3.5 as their final step to F1. Fernando Alonso did International Formula 3000 at the start of the century (and yes, you crumbled into dust again), and the other 12 all went through the conventional ladder, gaining the points needed.

The argument is that the way these points are assigned is due for a shake up, but right now, that’s the task facing Herta.

It could have been marginally better. Herta came off worse in a joint seventh place finish in IndyCar with Felix Rosenqvist with the former Formula E driver taking second at Road America - Herta finished third twice as his best result, so he loses out on the extra two license points that would have given him.

In the last four IndyCar seasons, Herta has finished 10th, 2nd and 7th, giving him one, 30 and four points for a total of 35. He’s five short. He loses that single point at the start of 2026, meaning he needs six points. Looking at the nerdy slide rule table, that means he has to finish at least eighth in Formula 2. Right now, that’s Roman Stanek. Last season it was where Richard Verschoor finished his 76th season in F2. In 2023, eighth was held by Denis Hauger, who subsequently moved to Indy NXT. 

He needs maybe 115 points next season to get what he needs for that elusive Super Licence. But it won’t be that simple. If Herta goes into the 2026 F2 season knowing exactly what he needs to get to 40, so will everyone else. He might be the most famous name in the series, and there will be a target on his back from the rest of the field, all of whom will have their own targets and pathways as they search for 40 points and a seat on the grid.

And some of those drivers will have some pedigree. Most F1 seats have been settled, and I’d include the unannounced Mercedes deals there too. The second Alpine seat, one Red Bull and one VCARB seat are definitely up for grabs in the first year of the new regulations.

Most other years, a back marker team might take a flier on Leonardo Fornaroli, the current series leader. Luke Browning is tied to Williams and likely has no path in 2026, similarly with Alex Dunne and McLaren. Jak Crawford is intriguing. Part of the Aston Martin Extended Universe, he likely is not going to get to F1 through that team. As a young American, the prospect of having two American drivers might be interesting for Cadillac in the future.

Then we have the Formula 3 drivers to consider. Rafael Câmara’s championship season comes with 30 points of his own and will almost certainly lead to an F2 drive. As for who else is under consideration, the inertia within F1 might mean that some drivers take an extra year in F2, meaning that they have that extra experience in F3 and F2 that Herta does not have. We’ll know more ahead of Abu Dhabi and drivers get an early taste of F2 machinery.

Herta is something of an exception already, but another reason he stands out is that he already appears to have his F2 Team determined. Reports say he’ll be heading to Rodin next season. Under their Carlin guise, there are all sorts of drivers who have graduated to F1, including champions Sebastian Vettel and Nico Rosberg. So Herta has got every chance to be on the 2027 grid with Cadillac, and this is one the stories to follow next year.

After the fastest and quickest F1 race in history, F1 concluded its short-haul season in Monza and now moves on to the flyaway races, starting with a week off and then a journey to Baku. Ferrari have never won here, and no one really expects them to set Azerbaijan alight. McLaren lead by miles in a season punctuated by Max Verstappen taking occasional wins. The drama is building, with botched pit stops and team orders being endlessly debated. Oscar Piastri took his second F1 win here in 2024, and doing the same would give him at least a 38-point lead with seven to go. If Lando Norris wins, the lead comes down to at least 24. Baku feels pivotal for the season and its papaya rules.