🇸🇬 F1'25 R18: 90-day clause

🌟 Editor's Note

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🗓️ Blog admin (Blogmin?)

It isn’t a secret that Mercedes’ lineup for 2026 will be George Russell and Kimi Antonelli.

But neither driver has been officially announced by Mercedes yet. These are always fun, with a digital team being briefed and we need this asset and this video and maybe a stat graphic. Oh, and we’ll need to work out which platforms and how we can tie this in with a merch drop and all the other million things that any good sports team needs to contend with.

And while Kimi Antonelli is all but confirmed but it hasn’t been announced because of the other car. George Russell has a strange situation. He drives for Mercedes, team principal Toto Wolff and Wolff is also involved in his management team. This is a great situation if you’re an Austrian billionaire, as you hold almost all the leverage, but Russell’s excellent 2025 season - and 2024 to a lesser extent - has changed things a little.

The latest edition of his season of consistency saw him lead Singapore from lights to flag for his second victory of the year, matching his tally from last season. With six races to go, he’s close to his points total from last year. He would be a highly sought-after driver in any silly season, in any series, but with massive rule changes coming from 2026, most teams are secure in their lineups and those that aren’t are either uncompetitive or include Max Verstappen. Famously, Russell and Verstappen didn’t want to sit next to each other for dinner let alone on both sides of an F1 garage.

@pitstop

What REALLY happened at the F1 drivers dinner 😂 #f1

There are just under 90 days before Russell becomes an unexpected free agent with no motorhome to join. So what could the hold ups be?

⌚ LESS TIME OFF TRACK

An F1 driver’s time is closely and fiercely guarded. Those expensive stickers on the car are usually pricier depending on how much driver time they come with. If you’re the team, you want to be able to tell your partners “yes, of course George will fly to Malaysia to talk to your staff” whereas if you’re an F1 veteran, do you really want to spend a day off doing that? Or “quickfire questions?”

You could train more, or there is the Max Verstappen approach, where you can win a sim race or be part of a winning endurance team on your day off, or you can be Oscar Piastri and unwind by going for the weekly food shop. Either way, the old phrase applies. Nothing is work unless you’d rather be doing something else and having the choice of shopping vs sponsors is something that enters a driver as they hit Year Seven on the F1 grid, especially when 2026’s rule changes will require more focus

🔑 A GUARANTEE OF SECURITY

With the last two seasons Russell has had - the first with the team saying farewell to Lewis Hamilton and this season transitioning to Antonelli, Russell has been quietly excellent, finishing in the points on all but four occasions. Even of those four, a DSQ in Belgium ‘24, a water leak at Silverstone, and a disaster strategy in Monaco earlier this season. His crash at Albert Park in 2024 is probably the only one that was truly his fault.

Therefore, if you’re seen as the team leader, you might ask for certain guarantees, either in length of contract, extension clauses if he beats Antonelli by a certain number of points, or Grand Prix wins. But if Mercedes are offering only a one-year deal, why not take it, do well and put yourself in an even better position in 2026?

👔 INDEPENDENT MANAGEMENT

I mentioned his unique situation earlier where Mercedes look after Russell as well as overseeing his F1 seat. One potential holdup could be that either or both sides are looking to end this arrangement to make negotiations neater.

Maybe it doesn’t matter, but having the same people on both sides of a negotiation works well until it doesn’t and then things get somewhat fractious. In Russell’s own words: 

🛑 MERCEDES HOLDING OUT FOR SOMEONE ELSE?

What if Russell, despite his form, isn’t who Mercedes want to lead their team? Antontelli is the young European gun who may be more marketable for Mercedes, but he cannot lead the team while Russell is there? Or what if they want Max Verstappen, bringing a four-time World Champion in to have what might be the perfect lineup if you’re trying to sell cars in central Europe with Verstappen leading the team and Antonelli in support. 

But what if - as an outside bet - there’s another option? Oscar Piastri has a “multi-year” agreement with McLaren but is clearly not happy at what he sees as preferential Papaya Rules to Lando Norris with a first Driver’s title at stake. Piastri, no stranger to lobbing a bomb into a driver market, could walk away from what he sees as a toxic situation. Even if his contract is “multi-year” with 2028 being the consensus on when it might expire, these things are always negotiable and often solved with a bank transfer (the first draft of this said chequebook, because I’m old). In this specific case, it might also be resolved with a powertrain deal.

There are even deeper wildcards with an unhappy Charles Leclerc at Ferrari, or maybe even a gap at Aston Martin if Fernando Alonso rides off into the sunset for the second time, but while the 2026 grid is largely set, Russell’s next move is going to be the one to watch.

McLaren have won back-to-back Constructors’ Championships, the last time they managed that was with Ayrton Senna and Gerhard Berger.

With 75% of the season gone, we have a fortnight to wait until the flyaway races start with a trip to Texas as the first leg of the triple header of the Americas. There is still plenty to play for, with Piastri vs Norris and a charge from Verstappen in the background. McLaren won the first race at COTA through Lewis Hamilton in 2012. The question has now moved a little bit from “which McLaren driver will win the Grand Prix?” to one of 5-6 drivers who could credibly take the chequered flag. But with Norris clawing three more points back vs Piastri, there are 22 points in it at the top.

Here is a boldish prediction, whomever finishes higher up between the two at COTA will win the title.

Thanks for reading, as always.