🔮 F1'26: Change controller port

🗓️ What’s coming up…

The most recent era of Formula 1 took out the shocks at the top. The sort of result that causes a head of state to phone a successful driver and creates genuine interest.

Yes, there were podiums for unfancied outfits, but the wins between 2022-2025 were all shared between the traditional big four teams.

If you watched Hungary 2021 or Italy 2020, you know what I'm talking about here. Esteban Ocon, then of Alpine, causing a Shockon (sorry) in the former being the beneficiary of Bottas’ bowling, and Gasly - 2 team names ago - picking up the win for Alpha Tauri around Monza.

As teams adjust to the new era, there will be unexpected results as the new order shakes itself out. This is what gets fans out of their ‘lol Max/Lando wins’ complacency. The truth is that Formula 1’s biggest strength is its predictability. It's also a huge weakness.

Let me explain using Formula E as an example. The series prides itself on its unpredictability (although the example is from 2019). You can qualify 17th and still win. That's great. But it throws casual fans for a loop. In a compressed 45-minute race, you can't tell the story, you can't work out just why the driver in 17th is storming up the order. You can't get behind an underdog if everyone is an underdog.

But I digress (I also adore Formula E, so please don't take that as an attack (mode) against it).

This is a way-too-early look at predicting things that absolutely definitely will happen in F1 2026. Guaranteed or your money back.

SOMEONE WINS A RACE AND FINISHES IN THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE STANDINGS

The original draft of this was about someone unexpected winning, but given the above, that felt like a cop-out. 

It will be rare if this happens. It has only happened twice this century. The Ocon result I mentioned before is one, the time before that was Pastor Maldonado’s Williams taking the chequered flag. I think after a few years, we’re due. I would love 2026 to be the year of the freak result, where Audi pick up a win, or Cadillac, or RB, or Williams etc. There are proven race winners and dangerous wildcards up and down the grid, and it's consistency over - the list goes on.

After several iterations to what we ultimately knew as the 2025 cars, the 2026 cars - lighter by a little bit and a chocolate bar shorter and narrower - are revolutionary in the scale of change. It also means one team could very possibly get lucky or creative in their interpretation of the rules leading to a similar situation to Brawn back in 2009. Engine compression ratios (and I promise you, this is not the blog to learn more about those) are the new double diffusers etc. and it means the unknown becomes even more exciting. I really hope that Drive to Survive features one episode about the future as a way to entice casual fans into watching the first races of the new era.

THE 22 DRIVERS WE START WITH WILL NOT BE THE 22 WE FINISH THE SEASON WITH

With a year of uncertainty to follow, I feel quite comfortable with this prediction. There is one true rookie on the 2026 grid in the form of Arvid Lindblad. Valtteri Bottas and Sergio Perez return to the grid after their sabbaticals and Isack Hadjar moves to Red Bull to replace Yuki Tsunoda. Boom, you are all caught up with the 2025 to 2026 driver market.

But with patience running thin among some team principals, I would not be surprised to see at least one early-season swap and one mid-season swap if early results don’t improve. 

The obvious name to put in this frame is Franco Colapinto. I was surprised to see him get a first full season in F1 after he replaced Logan Sargeant at Williams for half a year and took the place of Jack Doohan at Alpine after six 2025 races. The rule changes may have helped him here, as well as the significant financial backing he brings to one of the smaller F1 outfits (important note: I am not calling him a pay driver), but on pure sporting merit alone, unless he scores his first points for Alpine relatively early on, it would be difficult for the team not to see who they might have in reserve and. Paul Aron, and maybe Kush Maini might be waiting in the wings.

DRIVER MARKET CRAZINESS HAPPENS OVER THE SUMMER BREAK

As I said on Colapinto, the rule changes may have helped Alpine make a decision on whether they keep the driver who finished 20th last season. Several driver contracts also expire at the end of this year.

Last season, there was a fairly low hum of Max Verstappen moving to form a European supergroup with Kimi Antonelli at Mercedes. This utterly useless article from F1 uses the phrase “multi-year deal” a lot, whereas this from ESPN’s F1 arm is slightly better.

It seems like the drivers to watch are the Mercedes pair, the Racing Bulls and the Alpine drivers. But I’d also like to throw in a couple of wildcards.

I think - based on no actual inside information - that this is going to be Lewis Hamilton’s final year in F1, whether he wins the elusive eighth or not. It’ll mean Ollie Bearman graduates to Ferrari and gives Jack Doohan a possible pathway back to the grid at Haas.

But that won’t be all for Ferrari. I think Fernando Alonso will also call it a day after 2026 with Aston Martin. Either it goes amazingly and he gets title number 3, or he has flashbacks to his last Honda engine and calls it a day. With Max Verstappen unavailable, Aston Martin will make the statement signing of Charles Leclerc (even with his long contract), meaning another space at Ferrari and someone like George Russell or the second coming of Carlos Sainz heading to Italy.

If you’re into messy corporate drama that plays out across the world, this silly season is going to be the one for you.

WE SEE AT LEAST ONE NEW GRAND PRIX WINNER

Of the current grid, Isack Hadjar, Kimi Antonelli, Lance Stroll, Alex Albon, Ollie Bearman, Franco Colapinto, the two Audi drivers and the two RBs have not won at least one Grand Prix. That’s 10/22. There are some very capable drivers in that list, and with the unpredictability, I’m confident that we will add to the 115 names that have won a Grand Prix.

The most recent first time Grand Prix winners take us back to 2024, with Oscar Piastri (Hungary) and Lando Norris (Miami) opening their accounts. Of those 115 drivers, 27 of them broke their duck this century.

A first-time winner really matters, even if it’s similar to those McLaren’s as the car got better and better. Or whether it’s the result of the perfect storm, like Ocon’s in Hungary. The scenes on the podium when Gasly won for Alpha Tauri, or Sainz’s first win (Silverstone 2022) takes the driver into a new phase of their career. What they do with it after that is up to them, but they will always be a Grand Prix winner. 

A TOTAL CHAOS RACE SEES FEWER THAN 10 DRIVERS FINISH

Take a few moments to watch this from Monaco 1996. Rain-affected throughout and eventually, Olivier Panis in the Ligier finished first of just three finishers. 

This rarely happens now. F1 is altogether a much more cautious sport, and excessive rain is often followed by a safety car or a red flag. Reliability has traditionally been better with DNFs being more isolated. This year might change the second part of that equation as teams and drivers get used to their new cars and adapt their driving styles. Australia used to see a fair bit of attrition as things would inevitably go wrong.

The new era equivalent of this will be interesting. If bad weather appears, does F1 have a plan to let drivers race a bit more? If teams have got it wrong, is there a team able to capitalise on getting it right? Will both things happen at the same time? There are so many questions to answer for the teams and the opening races of the new era will be brilliant to see, as for all the locked down testing sessions, no one knows what happens until the lights go out.

📖 In other news…

I’m not exaggerating when I say that this might be one of the best-looking F1 grids in recent years.

With that said, for all the good things Cadillac have done so far, the Super Bowl ad missed the mark. The Times Square reveal looked smart, however.

Mercedes sign Payton Westcott as the 2026 F1 Academy gets closer to completion.

Formula E announces a bagful of influencers (or whatever the collective noun is) for their creator sessions. I knew three of these, which I’m ok with, as I am 6 Music listening man in his 40s.

🪦 The headline reference 

All the headlines in 2026 are video game references.

If you’ve never played Metal Gear Solid, it had several clever references. One of those was Psycho Mantis, a properly imaginative boss fight. Mantis was able to read your controller output, hence the “psycho” powers and would be able to read and comment upon your memory card.

The way to win? Change your controller from Port 1 to Port 2, stopping Mantis from being able to read you.

Thanks for reading