🇪🇸 Formula 1 2021: R4 - Getting out-thought if not outfought

The Spanish Grand Prix is not one that’s normally known for its hard-hitting action. Going into 2021’s race, Lewis Hamilton had led every lap since lap 33 of 2018’s edition. And although that particular streak was broken this time around, it was the reigning World Champion who took the chequered flag first and the 25 crucial Championship points that came with it.

But it didn’t look that way until a superb strategic move from Mercedes. They pitted Hamilton for a slightly unexpected second time onto an extra set of mediums, giving up time and track position to Max Verstappen’s Red Bull in the hope of passing him in the closing laps.

Red Bull did the maths and realised they had been out-thought. They couldn’t pit Max again, so they hoped that the Dutchman would be able to nurse his tyres to the end. Once this didn’t happen, Red Bull mitigated the damage with a late stop for him and the better tyres allowed him to get the fastest lap and reduce the damage from seven to six points.

Mercedes could afford to give up the track position in Spain, which is unusual, given the history of the race and the difficulty in overtaking, but they took inspiration from another track where overtaking is tough.

Mercedes did the same thing with the same drivers and the same result at Hungary in 2019, right down to Verstappen pitting late for the chance of the extra point.

Analyst Karun Chandhok and Red Bull’s own social media team were talking about it during today’s race, but it seemed as though the team’s strategists didn’t have a clear answer and were unable to convert a brilliant Verstappen start as a result.

In general, Red Bull are fantastic at pit stops. They have had the top three stops this season and are the only team to get their cars out of the box in under two seconds so far this season.

In a sport where every fraction of a second counts, saving those fractions can make all the difference. This was apparent during the Spanish race when former World Champions Fernando Alonso and Sebastian Vettel, racing against each other, both pitted at the same time. Alonso’s stop was 2.5 seconds, Vettel’s 4.0.

The extra 1.5 seconds not only meant that the Spanish driver was ahead, but the German racer had a car in between his rival to contend with before he could attack Alonso. On this occasion, the difference did not lead to points, with both drivers finishing outside the top 10.

Lap 22 // BOX BOX Fernando!Shedding his qualifying Softs for new @pirellisport Mediums. #SpanishGP pic.twitter.com/fWFrewaKpC

— Alpine F1 Team (@AlpineF1Team) May 9, 2021

Strategy is just as vital as the driver’s raw pace and the car. You can’t win the race if your car isn’t quick enough, but then the driver has to also get the maximum out of the car.

Once you have those two, you have to understand the conditions and the weather, but even once you’ve done that, you have to be able to react to how the track is evolving, who your rivals are, and all the computer simulations in the world sometimes doesn’t tell the full story.

In bringing Hamilton in, and Red Bull not having that second car available to be a rear gunner for Verstappen, Mercedes made it so Verstappen was always going to be stuck in second and they were just playing a waiting game. In the end, pitting for fastest lap and second was the best they could have done.

The graph above shows the top 10 finishers and their quickest stop over the course of the race (and Lance Stroll, whose Aston Martin clocked the fastest stop at 2.1 seconds). Verstappen’s crew made amends for a very slow 4.2 second stop earlier in the race, and Ferrari — a team who had an Achilles’ heel in executing fast pit stops a couple of seasons ago — serviced their drivers incredibly quickly.

While on the subject of the pits, during the early safety car period, Alfa Romeo decided to pit Antonio Giovinazzi. The stop took 35.1 seconds because one of the mechanics noticed that one of the new tyres was flat, signalling to the rest of the crew that an entirely new set was needed.

Although the Italian driver finished outside the points, there’s a chance he would not have finished at all, or would have to stop the next lap, had the mechanic not realised that something was wrong. Even under the reduced pressure of a pit stop under the safety car, the speed of thought from the Alfa Romeo pit crew was impressive.

The next race is Monaco, and it’s time to make an odd prediction. Charles Leclerc, in his home race, is going to win Ferrari’s first race this decade.

The final sector in Spain culminates with a downhill right, left, right sweep of corners that is reminiscent of Monaco and Leclerc was noticeably quick through that section. Don’t put the house on it, but with 2021 is being talked about as Lewis v Max, no one is talking about Ferrari in a wildcard race like the famous street track and in front of home fans… why not?

PREVIOUSLY THIS SEASON:

🇪🇸 Round 4: Getting out-thought if not outfought

🇵🇹 Round 3: Portimão and the benefits of a rule change

🏁 The pros and cons of sprint qualifying

🇮🇹 Round 2: Max Verstappen and the Italian curse

🇧🇭 Round 1: Bahrain and comparing qualifying pace with 2020

🔮 Four odd predictions for F1 2021